Covington GA Living

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issued a press release on December 11 of last year entitled "The Worst is Over - Existing Home Sales to trend up in 2008."  Yesterday, the Atlanta Journal Constitution published an article on the Business front, above the fold, that shouted "Metro area foreclosures surge."  If you saw these two articles, you're probably wondering "What the heck is going on?"  So, who's right?

I don't know the answer to that question.  But, let me tell you what I DO know.

The NAR is wrong!  That should be evident with yesterday's AJC headline. 

The NAR and their economists based their national prognostication on a single positive indicator - a projected increase in the number of existing home sales in 2008.  Well, that shouldn't be too hard to achieve since the 2007 home sale market was, overall, one of the worst in recent history.  But "national" is the operative word here.

The NAR reports from a national perspective, but real estate is not a national business.  It's a local business.  Almost every market is different.  Thus, the only person who can make sure you understand the market from a proper perspective is your local Realtor.

Many local real estate markets, such as Charlotte, Birmingham and Harrisburg, PA, were not nearly as affected as markets in California, Ohio and Florida.  Even Atlanta was not as hard hit as those.  And there is good news in mant markets across the country.

We are beginning to see increased activity in the real estate market here in Covington, Georgia.  Buyers are beginning to look at homes again.  Sellers are beginning to put their homes on the market.  People are applying for refinancing and new mortgages.  But last week's Covington News also had 25 pages of foreclosure legal notices... the most I've seen since early September of last year when there were 17 pages of notices.  Does that mean the AJC is right?

The AJC is wrong too!  They're right in their facts... "Metro Atlanta foreclosure notices shot to a record high this month...."  "That is up 45 percent from the same period a year ago."  But they're woefully wrong in the way they report those facts, characterizing the news as "... a dismal sign of deepening woes in the housing and mortgage market...."

It is true that 215 U.S. lending operations have gone under since late s006 - primarily sub-prime mortgagers.  It's true that foreclosures are at an all-time high.  But, it's also true that the media seems to take great pleasure in running chills up and down the spines of their consumers.  They have reported so often and so negatively about our housing market that they have frightened buyers, seller and investors away from the the market that was, in fact, the glue holding the U.S. economy together for several years past.

Bottom line is that no one has a corner on the housing market crystal ball.  The NAR doesn't.  The media doesn't.  Nor do economists who work for them.  Economists, whether they work for the overly optimistic NAR or the overly pessimistic media, make the predictions their industry wants to hear.  Economists are like weathermen.  Their predictions are often wrong, but after it rains, they're great at telling you why.  I take them all with a grain of salt.

Is the "worst over?"  Or are we seeing "a dismal sign of deepening woes in the housing and mortgage market?"

Who knows?  I'm just going to watch the Covington real estate market and, with apologies to Yogi, tell you that "It Ain't Over "Till It's Over!"

I've said before that, in my opinion, we're lucky in Covington and Newton County, Georgia to have government land use planners, commissions and councils who are concerned with proper, sustainable growth in our city and county.  A recent survey by the National Association of Realtors® and Smart Growth America supports what we're doing here in verifying that the American public agrees that growth is good so long as it is "Smart Growth."

High energy costs are making Americans think twice about unrestrained, random development.  Overwhelmingly, people want their local governments and developers to plan and make their communities less dependent on cars by rethinking land use and pouring resources into public transportation, according to the survey.

Asked to select the best approach to reducing energy use, more than 80 percent said they favor building communities so that people can walk more, and almost 90 percent favor providing public transportation in the form of rail and buses.  Along those same lines, 75 percent say the cure for escalating traffic problems isn't more roads but walkable communities and more transit choices.

We haven't quite reached the population point in Covington and Newton County that will require us to seriously consider the need for a local public transportation system.   We are, however a part of the larger Atlanta Metropolitan area with over 17,000 Newton County residents commuting into Atlanta daily.  So we should still be concerned when our regional authorities continue to talk about light rail but do nothing... when international business consulting companies tell their clients not to relocate to Atlanta because of the terrible traffic... when over ¼ million of us spend between 2 and 3 hours every day commuting back and forth to work!

But we are getting it right in the other area... land use planning and development!

Our first Traditional Neighborhood Development (TND), Clark's Grove, is now four years old, and still thriving.  Only two homes remain for sale in Phase I.  Construction on Phase II of the neighborhood will begin in late March of this year, adding more commercial space and another 90 homes.

Construction of homes has begun in Dorchester Place, Covington's newest TND, also just a short walk from Covington's historic square.  When completed, Dorchester Place will claim 124 homes.

Finally, the Newton County Commission has not only pre-approved, but praised the developer's plans for Mount Pleasant, a new Traditional Neighborhood Development and college community planned to abut the Georgia Perimeter College campus off Georgia Highway 11. 

Considering our county's population and the fact that there are currently only some 260 TNDs in the entire U.S., it's pretty amazing - and gratifying - that we have three right here in Covington and Newton County!  In Covington, "Smart Growth" is not just a buzzword.  It's reality!